ESTIMATING SATELLITE DELIVERIES BASED ON HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
VOL. 1 - NORTH & SOUTH AMERICA

Published: 2001 by the Communications Center

Format: GBC bound, 105 pages, dimensions (inches): 8.5 x 11

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Delivery times are vital to everyone in the satellite communications business.

The following description provides an overview of Volume 1 - (The Americas), Volume 2 - (Asia and the Middle East) and Volume 3 - (Europe, Africa and International).

·      What are the real delivery times for existing or new design satellites?

·      If a service provider is planning to start a new service as soon as new capacity is available, it needs to know what the historical tolerance has been on the satellite deliveries.

·      New or expanding satellite systems need to know how long it will really take to get a new satellite built and into service.  This information is vital for making credible business plans and forecasts of requirements.

·      In the case of a replacement satellite, the delivery and in-service times are critical to assure continuity of service when the existing satellite runs out of fuel.

OPERATORS

·      Existing satellite operators need to know how much lead-time needs to be allowed so a new satellite can be placed in service at the right time.  If too soon the value of an in-orbit satellite may be reduced if the demand has not yet developed.  If the satellite must be stored on the ground, there will be storage costs and even more significant, interest costs with no offsetting revenues.  If the delivery is too late, a market opportunity may be missed and customers that have signed up for the capacity will obtain other transponders, possibly on satellites of competitors.

BUILDERS

·      The manufacturers need to know the schedule so they can order parts, schedule people, test facilities and manufacturing plants for the most cost effective product flow.

LAUNCHERS

·      The launch vehicles are long-lead expensive items that must be procured in a timely manner based on the satellite delivery schedules.

·      The launch facilities for each type of launch vehicle are very limited and under normal conditions, have to be scheduled well in advance.

REGULATORS

·      Regulators, both national and the International Telecommunications Union, have due diligence dates that must be met for the licenses and registrations.  These may be irreversibly lost to another nation or competitor if the delivery is too late.

TRANSPONDER LESSEES

·      A current customer on a satellite with an upcoming end-of-life date, has an urgent need for a timely replacement launch before the current satellite expires.  If this cannot be provided, there is the risk of a gap in service.  Having a choice of satellite providers, these users will quickly defect to another provider, possibly in a matter of hours or days but certainly after a few weeks.  

·      If a new customer, a delay in acquiring transponder capacity can make most start-up business plans invalid.  Most contracts have failure-to-provide service cancellation clauses that have long term impacts far greater than spacecraft or launch delay penalties.

For all these reasons, it is important to have an understanding of what is a reasonable time for the production, test, launch and other time consuming elements that cumulate in delivery.

Since many spacecraft are unique, there are a variety of factors that affect delivery schedules.  First-of-a-type designs take longer than subsequent copies.  Ground spares can take a leisurely schedule because the need-date cannot be pre-scheduled.  Urgent replacements (for launch or on-orbit failures) need much shorter deliver dates.  Problems may be encountered at any stage resulting in delays.  Examples of what can affect schedules are provided using actual case studies.

This report examines the record of the manufacturers in completing orders for delivery of geostationary communications satellites over the last decade.

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

1.0 INTRODUCTION

2.0 METHODOLOGY

3.0 U.S. FSS COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITES

    3.1 GE AMERICOM'S SATELLITES
        3.1.1   GE-1 and GE-2
        3.1.2   GE-3, GE-4 and GE-6
        3.1.3   GE-5
        3.1.4   GE-7
        3.1.5   GE-8/AURORA III and GE-9

    3.2 TELSTAR SERIES
        3.2.1   Telstar 5
        3.2.2   Telstar 6
        3.2.3   Telstar 7
        3.2.4   Telstar 8

    3.3 GALAXY SERIES
        3.3.1     Galaxy Boeing 376 or Boeing Satellites
        3.3.1.1  Galaxy-VI
        3.3.1.2  Galaxy V
        3.3.1.3  Galaxy 1R
        3.3.1.4  Galaxy 1-R (S)
        3.3.1.5  Galaxy IX
        3.3.2     Galaxy Boeing 601 Satellites
        3.3.2.1   Galaxy VII (H)
        3.3.2.2   Galaxy IV (H)
        3.3.2.3   Galaxy III-R
        3.3.2.4   Galaxy VIII i (8i)
        3.3.3      Boeing 601 HP Satellites
        3.3.3.1   Galaxy X (10)
        3.3.3.2   Galaxy X-R (10R)
        3.3.4      HS 601 Replacements
        3.3.4.1   Galaxy IV(R)
        3.3.4.2   Galaxy VII R
        3.3.5      Galaxy Boeing 702 Satellite
        3.3.5.1   Galaxy XI (I) (or 11)

    3.4 SBS SERIES
        3.4.1   SBS-1 to SBS-3
        3.4.2   SBS-4
        3.4.3   SBS-5
        3.4.4   SBS-6

4.0 U.S. BROADCASTING SATELLITE SERIES

    4.1 TEMPO 1 AND 2

    4.2 DIRECTV SERIES
        4.2.1   DirecTV 1 to 3 (DBS 1 to 3)
        4.2.2   DirecTV 1R
        4.2.3   DirecTV 6

    4.3 ECHOSTAR
        4.3.1   DBSC
        4.3.2   Dominion
        4.3.3   Directsat
        4.3.4   Advanced Communications Corporation
        4.3.5   EchoStar
        4.3.6   ASkyB

5.0 CANADIAN SATELLITES
    5.1 ANIK C, D, E AND F FSS SERIES
        5.1.1   Anik C Series
        5.1.2   Anik D Series
        5.1.3   Anik E Series
        5.1.4   Anik F1

    5.2 NIMIQ-1

6.0 LATIN AMERICAN DOMESTIC SATELLITES

    6.1 BRASILSAT
        6.1.1   Brasilsat B1 and B2
        6.1.2   Brasilsat B3
        6.1.3   Brasilsat B4

    6.2 NAHUEL

    6.3 MEXICAN SATELLITES
        6.3.1   Morelos
        6.3.2   Solidaridad
        6.3.3   Satmex-5

7.0 COMPARISONS
    7.1 INFLUENCE OF THE DATE OF THE ORDER PLACEMENT
    7.2 INFLUENCE OF THE LAUNCH DATE ON DELIVERY
    7.3 COMPLEXITY VS. DELIVERY TIME
    7.4 INFLUENCE OF LAUNCH MASS ON DELIVERY
    7.5 INFLUENCE OF TOTAL POWER
    7.6 INDIVIDUAL MANUFACTURER DELIVERIES

APPENDIX I - ITU DUE DILIGENCE FORMS

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES:

FIGURE 4.2-1 THE ORIGINAL HUGHES HS-394 DBS CONFIGURATION
FIGURE 7.6-1 HUGHES' DELIVERY RECORD
FIGURE 7.6-2 LOCKHEED MARTIN'S DELIVERY RECORD
FIGURE 7.6-3 SPACE SYSTEMS/LORAL'S DELIVERY RECORD
FIGURE 7.6-4 DELIVERY RECORDS OF ASTRIUM AND ALCATEL
FIGURE A-1 DUE DILIGENCE FORM

TABLE 3.4-1 CHARACTERISTICS OF SIX SATELLITES
TABLE 4.3-1 SOURCES OF ECHOSTAR LICENSES
TABLE 4.3-2 SOURCES OF THE ECHOSTAR SATELLITES
TABLE 5.1.4-1 ANIK F1 CAPABILITIES
TABLE 5.1-1 CANADIAN SATELLITES
TABLE 6.1.2-1 BRASILSAT B SERIES CHARACTERISTICS
TABLE 6.3.1-1 MEXICAN SATELLITE FAMILIES

Related Satellite Delivery Reports
  Vol.1 The Americas
  Vol.2 Asia/Middle East
  Vol.3 Europe/Africa/Intl.
  Vol.4 Manufacturer

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